Corona Crap!

[pooh6369]

Shit that's some eye opening shit.

 

[Dago]

Damn I just read that too...I've read some of his books

 

[01dragonslayer]

Scary stuff right there.

 

[R2D2]

i think it's better to err on the side of being overly cautious, imo. not that i don't absolutely dislike the disruption to all of our lives.

 

[GRIM]

Its ppl being NUTS on both spectrums
Buying all the TP
or its just the flu
Both misinformed both not helping matters 1 bit

 

[TSizemore]

I'm trying real hard to keep my mouth shut... But, this is actually starting to really worry me. My retirement account has lost 25% if it's value.... What took 20 years to build is gone in 2 weeks!

 

[pooh6369]

Bellagio and most Casinos closed eerie sight to see. Nobody on the strip!!

 

[GRIM]

That blows.
There definitely was knee jerk reaction
From its no big deal to bam too late and now close close close

 

[01dragonslayer]

Kinda eerie lookin'.

 

[The Tone]

I think the projected number for deaths around the world is 45 million.

 

[R2D2]

yikes!

 

[IronFox]

I hope I can get to go to Las Vegas in May as going there 2nd week.

 

[tech123]

Good Morning Guys (and Ladies) - I'm going to post a couple of items as separate posts that I typed up just for thought.

But before that - I just wanted to give my opinion:

• Trump's been sounding more Presidential of late and deferring to actual professionals in the healthcare industry
• The administration is slowly adopting measures more in line with the successful strategies of China, South Korea and Japan
• Trump's still back and forth on whether he's going to force companies to produce facemasks, ventilators, etc. using the Defense Production Act. This indecision might possibly be the final straw in terms of putting us permanently outside the window of "flattening the curve"
• Americans more easily tolerate their freedoms to be taken away slowly rather than quickly
• In general, American's reactions to the Pandemic follow the cycle of grief
  1. Denial and isolation
  2. Anger
  3. Bargaining
  4. Depression
  5. Acceptance
• Denial --> Conspiracy theories; dismissing the threat as "just the flu" etc.
• Anger --> People are hoarding stuff - why can't I buy toilet paper (answer: because I was in denial when it was available); Our govt is hiding stuff from us (answer: no, they're fettered by red tape and bureacracy that they created, and inability to work together; fully grown men with stunted emotional intelligence)
• Bargaining --> Maybe it will be ok

Anyway, my personal opinion is that we may not see major shortages to the point of people starving because our supply chains are sufficient, but we may see infection and mortality rates that we are not expecting due to our government's and citizen's delay in taking this pandemic seriously.

 

[tech123]

A BRIEF SUMMARY OF WHAT WENT WRONG IN ITALY

Italy is a first-world / developed country with a world class healthcare system, so what went wrong?

I originally wrote this post on Facebook to help quantify the risks we are facing from Coronavirus in case anyone has just been skimming the surface of the news and not really paying attention.

ITALY SUMMARY - 8% MORTALITY RATE

Italy is an example of what happens when we don't "flatten the curve". The hospitals are overwhelmed. People who could have lived if ICU beds were available die in large numbers.

Here is a link to a video where Italians speak about what they wish they had told themselves 10 days ago - basically that they wished they hadn't underestimated the virus:

http://a.msn.com/05/en-us/BB11j86f?ocid=scu2

I did the calculation below (these are 3/18 numbers, but the mortality rate goes up slightly with the 3/19 numbers) and you can see that even if none of their remaining open cases results in death, they are already at an 8% MORTALITY RATE.

This is what happens if we don't "flatten the curve" by engaging in social distancing, prohibiting gatherings, etc., causing our healthcare system to become overwhelmed.

Current numbers from Italy: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Of the cases with a resolution, there were:

5444 total cases
2941 recovered
2503 died

Of the current cases, there are:

26062 cases
24002 mild
2060 severe or critical

Assuming no one else dies out of the 26062 open cases, this works out to:

26062 + 5444 = 31506
2503 / 31506 = 0.0794 or about an 8% MORTALITY RATE.

 

[tech123]

WHAT'S NEXT IN THE US IN TERMS OF MORTALITY

Below is a link to an article that talks about what the next 18 months could look like for us.

https://www.msn.com/…/a-chilling-scientific-pap…/ar-BB11jVNP

OPTION 1
If we do nothing to flatten the curve and the pandemic doesn't wane on its own:

UK = 510,000 deaths
US = 2.2 million deaths

OPTION 2
If we pursue "more ambitious measures" (basically where I think we are now) to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus, this could reduce the mortality by half:

UK = 260,000 deaths
US = 1.1 million deaths

OPTION 3
If our government went "all out" quickly to suppress viral spread (think China, Japan, South Korea), then the number of dead could drop to:

UK = below 20,000
US = numbers weren't provided

CURRENT STATE / NEXT STEPS
It "seems like" we are slowly transitioning to the second scenario, perhaps quickly enough, perhaps not. Maybe we will eventually get around to seriously locking down transportation, unnecessary time in public, etc. Maybe not.

One item the article mentioned is that these social distancing / self-quarantine practices could have to stay in effect for the next 12 to 18 months (while work is completed on anti-virals and vaccines) unless the virus case load goes down on its own due to seasonal change, etc.

CAVEATS / MITIGATING FACTORS

There's a decent chance that we have already missed the chance for Option 3 to really work. In that case we are stuck between the numbers in Option 2 and Option 3.

Seasonal change or other factors could cause the virus to subside on its own.

 

[tech123]

As far as I can tell, this resulted from someone eating a bat.

At first the virus only infected the humans but couldn't spread human to human, only bat to bat.

Then it mutated (viruses have notoriously terrible replication machinery - no error checking, etc.) and gained the ability to transfer from human to human.

I'm attaching some files my friend showed (they are screenshots from a zoom meeting on my phone so the quality sucks) where it compares the signature of the genome from other viruses known to come from bats. My friend (virologist at the CDC specializing in coronaviruses) says it's fairly unanimous that it's believed to be naturally occuring, not lab created. Huge coincidence that it occurred in Wuhan though.

Who's to say that they weren't breeding bats with known viruses over and over to see what mutations would occur and then the janitor picked the dead bat out of the trash and sold it at the wildlife market though. I think stuff like that is a possibility, although improbable. It just keeps bothering me that the virology lab is in Wuhan but this occurred naturally. Too big of a coincidence for my comfort, but science is science / facts are facts.

 

[GRIM]

Yes i agree he FINALLY is
Issue is still how bad he dropped the ball in the beginning gonna take some time to fix that damage

 

[dyel]

1000 dollars says a vaccine will be made and forced upon individuals.

 

[GRIM]

With the rush i question how good itll be

 

[tech123]

news.google.com chloroquine

I ordered 90 tabs from India 3 weeks ago - they're still on the way. Ordered another 90 today.

Hydroxycloroquine is probably even more effective.

3 weeks ago I could find very little news on this except for one article published and then removed by Xinhua that I found on an archive site. Now google news is filled with articles. The FDA guy mentioned on the President's press conference this morning that the FDA was "taking another look" at Trump's urging. Elon Musk tweeted that they need to look at it as well.